Why Locking Up Cartel Members Does not Work
Abstract
One of the core strategies to reduce cartel violence is by directly targeting members with law enforcement. Whether targeting leaders, disrupting parts of the organisation, or incarcerating members, the purpose is to reduce the strength of cartels directly. Most security strategies result in increased incarceration rates. Yet its effectiveness in addressing organised crime remains unclear, particularly if it fails to prevent recidivism upon release from jail. Here, a model is constructed to quantify cartel participation across generations, where individuals are recruited, age over time, and exit cartels as victims of a homicide or due to incapacitation, or retirement. Incarcerating cartel members prevents less than 10% of cartel offences. Additionally, doubling penalties would reduce cartel members' potential by less than 5%, thereby challenging proposals for stricter rules. Yet, rehabilitation after prison, often neglected as an integral part of the security strategy, could be more effective in lowering cartel crimes.
Summary
This paper addresses the critical question of whether incarcerating cartel members is an effective strategy to reduce cartel violence. The author constructs a computational model to simulate cartel participation across generations, accounting for recruitment, aging, and attrition due to homicide, incapacitation, and retirement. The model focuses on the 1990 male cohort in Mexico, tracking their cartel involvement from 2005 to 2045. The methodology involves creating individual agents with specific attributes and simulating their life courses within the cartel, including recruitment, incarceration (based on real-world sentencing data from a Mexican prison survey), and potential re-offending upon release. The key finding is that incarcerating cartel members prevents less than 10% of potential cartel offenses. Doubling penalties is also shown to have a minimal impact, reducing cartel potential by less than 5%. The model suggests that rehabilitation programs, often neglected in security strategies, could be far more effective in lowering cartel crimes. The paper challenges the prevalent "Mano Dura" approach of stricter penalties and argues for a shift towards social reintegration and rehabilitation as a more effective means of reducing cartel influence and violence. This research matters to the field because it provides quantitative evidence that contradicts the conventional wisdom of relying solely on incarceration to combat organized crime, highlighting the need for alternative strategies.
Key Insights
- •The model estimates that approximately 1.1% of males from the 1990 cohort in Mexico will participate in cartel activities at some point in their lives, translating to 15,000-16,000 individuals.
- •Cartel involvement significantly reduces life expectancy, with members being killed on average at 33.6 years old, resulting in a 14.4-year decrease in life expectancy compared to non-recruited individuals (from 69 to 54.6 years).
- •Incarceration only averts 9% of the cartel potential of the 1990 cohort, while homicides account for a 33% reduction, and retirement accounts for 12%.
- •Doubling the length of prison sentences would only decrease the cartel potential of the 1990 cohort from 46% to 41%, a marginal improvement that could exacerbate prison conditions.
- •The model assumes that all cartel members return to the cartel upon release from prison, which represents a best-case scenario for assessing the effect of incarceration. This assumption highlights the negligible impact of current prison conditions on social rehabilitation.
- •The model is validated by comparing its age distribution predictions for homicide victims and incarcerated individuals with real-world data from Mexico, showing a high correlation.
- •With full rehabilitation (β=1, meaning nobody released from jail returns to the cartel), the cartel potential suffered in the country would drop from 46% to 36%, making it far more effective than doubling prison sentences.
Practical Implications
- •The research suggests that real-world security strategies should prioritize social rehabilitation and reintegration programs for former cartel members over solely relying on incarceration and stricter penalties.
- •Policymakers and government agencies involved in combating organized crime can use these findings to re-evaluate their strategies and allocate resources towards rehabilitation programs.
- •The model provides a framework for estimating the impact of different interventions, such as rehabilitation or increased penalties, on cartel activity, allowing for data-driven decision-making.
- •Future research could focus on developing and evaluating specific rehabilitation programs tailored to the needs of former cartel members, as well as exploring the factors that contribute to re-offending and how to mitigate them.
- •The model and findings can be adapted and applied to other regions and countries facing similar challenges with organized crime, providing valuable insights for developing effective counter-strategies.